After three consecutive rate rises in 2026, the Reserve Bank of Australia meets again on Monday 16 June — and this time, all four major banks are forecasting a pause. But a pause is not a cut, and the outlook beyond June remains divided. Whether you're a homeowner, a first home buyer, or an investor, right now — this weekend — is the ideal time to review your position before Monday's announcement.
KEY TAKEAWAY: All four major banks expect the RBA to hold the cash rate at 4.35% on 16 June 2026 — but only CBA and ANZ believe the hiking cycle is over. Westpac still forecasts two more rises later in the year. Don't wait for certainty that may never arrive.
What Are the Major Banks Predicting for the June 16 Meeting?
Following three back-to-back increases in February, March and May 2026 — which have now fully reversed all of 2025's rate cuts — the RBA has signalled it wants time to assess the cumulative impact on household spending and inflation. The Reserve Bank of Australia board meets on 15–16 June, with the decision announced Tuesday.
All four major banks now expect the cash rate to hold at 4.35% in June. But that's where the consensus ends:
- CBA and ANZ believe the RBA's hiking cycle has peaked and the next move will be a cut — though they're cautious about timing.
- NAB recently removed its August hike forecast. Chief Economist Sally Auld stated the bank has "greater conviction that the next move is down, but less conviction on timing."
- Westpac maintains a forecast for two further 25 basis point increases later in 2026, which would take the cash rate to 4.85%.
For Melbourne borrowers, that disagreement among the banks is itself important information. The outlook is genuinely uncertain, and relying on a single forecast — or doing nothing — is not a strategy.
Should I Fix My Rate Before the RBA Meets?
This is the most common question we've been fielding from Melbourne homeowners this week. The short answer: it depends on your personal circumstances — which is exactly why speaking with a broker before the market moves is so valuable.
Fixed rates are priced on market expectations of future RBA moves, not just today's cash rate. If markets have already priced in a pause (or future cuts), some lenders may have moved their fixed rates in anticipation — and in fact, at least 11 lenders have already cut their variable rates ahead of any official decision.
Before deciding to fix, consider these questions:
- How long are you comfortable being locked in? Fixed terms typically run 1–5 years.
- What happens to your repayments if rates fall while you're fixed?
- Does the fixed product include an offset account?
- What are the break costs if your circumstances change?
Fixing can provide genuine peace of mind — but it's not automatically the right move for every borrower. Speak with an IFG broker before Monday to model both scenarios for your specific loan balance and timeline.
How Three Rate Rises Have Reshaped Borrowing Capacity in 2026
The three 2026 hikes have had a real and measurable impact on what Melbourne borrowers can access. APRA's 3% serviceability buffer — which stress-tests borrowers at 3 percentage points above their actual interest rate — is still firmly in place. That means lenders are currently assessing new applications at rates significantly higher than what borrowers are actually paying.
For existing borrowers, the cumulative effect of 2026's rises has been significant. If you took out your home loan during the 2025 rate-cut period, or if you haven't spoken to a broker since early this year, there's a real chance your current rate or loan structure no longer reflects the best available deal.
The "loyalty tax" is alive and well in Australia. Lenders routinely offer better rates to new customers than to existing ones on equivalent products. If you've been with the same lender without questioning your rate, it's worth reviewing — particularly through a broker who can access wholesale pricing across dozens of lenders simultaneously. Our refinancing page explains how the process works and what to expect.
What a Pause Means for First Home Buyers
A confirmed hold on June 16 would signal that the RBA believes its current settings are beginning to work — a positive sign for buyer confidence. Historically, periods of rate stability bring more buyers back into the market as repayment certainty improves.
For first home buyers in Melbourne and Geelong, this is encouraging. Borrowing capacity has been compressed by 2026's hikes, but the First Home Guarantee remains one of the most powerful tools available: no income caps since October 2025, a raised property price cap of $950,000 for Melbourne and Geelong, and the ability to purchase with just a 5% deposit and no Lenders Mortgage Insurance (LMI).
If you've been on the sidelines waiting for rates to fall before entering the market, a pause — combined with the government scheme and fierce lender competition — may be the moment to reassess your position with a broker.
Three Things Melbourne Borrowers Should Do This Weekend
You don't need to wait until Monday to act. Here are three practical steps worth taking before the RBA decision is announced:
- Check when your fixed rate expires. If you fixed your rate during 2023–24 at a lower level and your term is ending this year, you may be rolling onto a significantly higher variable rate automatically. A broker can prepare your options now so you're not caught off-guard.
- Run a rate health check. Compare your current interest rate against the market using a mortgage broker — not just a comparison website. Brokers access wholesale pricing and can negotiate directly with your lender, sometimes achieving a reduction without the need to refinance at all.
- Review your offset account strategy. Every dollar sitting in a transaction or savings account outside your home loan may be costing you money. Every dollar in a linked offset account reduces the loan principal on which interest is calculated — effectively giving you a return equal to your mortgage rate, tax-free. In the current environment, this is one of the highest-return, zero-risk financial tools available to Australian borrowers.
IFG's Take: Don't Wait for Certainty
After three rate rises that reversed all of 2025's cuts, the RBA is now in a genuine watch-and-wait mode. A June pause is the most likely outcome — but the road beyond June remains contested among the major banks. What nobody can tell you with confidence is whether the next move is another hike, a long hold, or the beginning of cuts.
What we do know is that waiting for certainty is itself a decision — and often not the most financially advantageous one. The borrowers who get the best outcomes are those who review their position proactively, understand their options, and make changes when the market conditions favour it — not after the fact.
As MFAA-accredited brokers, Brian and Frank at Integrated Finance Group work across a wide panel of lenders to find the most competitive structure for your individual circumstances. There's no cost to you and no obligation — just a clear picture of where you stand and what your options are heading into one of the most uncertain rate environments in recent memory. We serve homeowners, investors, and first home buyers across Melbourne's northern and north-western suburbs including Coburg North, Essendon, Moonee Ponds and beyond — and Geelong-region clients via our Geelong office.
Get a Free Loan Review Before the RBA Decides
Book a free 15-minute strategy call with IFG this weekend. We'll check your rate, model your options, and make sure you're in the best position — whatever Monday brings.
Book a free consultation or call 0401 333 636
General advice disclaimer: This article is general information only and does not constitute financial, credit, or investment advice. Interest rates, economic forecasts, and scheme details are subject to change. Individual lender policies and product availability vary. Speak with a qualified mortgage broker — IFG is a member of the MFAA and an authorised credit representative under BLSSA Pty Ltd ACL 391237. Brian Hermosilla, Credit Representative 485802. Frank Marin, Credit Representative 486546.