The Reserve Bank of Australia held the official cash rate at 4.35% on 11 August 2026 — the second consecutive pause after three rate increases delivered in the first half of the year. For Melbourne borrowers who have absorbed three rises since February, this is a welcome window of stability. But it is not a reason to wait.
Three facts set the context heading into spring. First: 44% of economists still expect at least one further rise before the end of 2026, with 69% of those nominating November as the meeting at which it arrives. Second: Melbourne’s spring auction season lifts from late August and the REIV already recorded a clearance rate of 73% for the week of 8 August — the highest since March. Third: the 2026 hikes have cut average borrowing capacity by roughly 7%, meaning buyers entering the spring market need a sharper finance strategy than they did 12 months ago.
What did the RBA decide on 11 August 2026?
On 11 August 2026, the Monetary Policy Board voted to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% — the second hold in a row. The decision was widely anticipated, with CBA, ANZ and NAB all forecasting no change. Governor Michele Bullock noted that inflation remains above the 2–3% target band but that the data suggests the three 2026 hikes are having their intended effect on demand.
Key data that supported a pause: unemployment rising to 4.5%, consumer spending contracting, business confidence at multi-year lows, and underlying (trimmed mean) inflation easing from its 2026 peak — slowly but measurably. The decision is consistent with the RBA’s monetary policy framework: hold while previous hikes work their way through the economy; don’t cut until inflation is sustainably within target.
For variable rate borrowers, a hold means no automatic repayment change at this meeting. But repayments stay at their post-hike level — the three 2026 increases have not been undone. And with another potential move in November, the planning window between now and that decision is one Melbourne borrowers should use.
Will Australian interest rates go down in 2026?
No major bank is forecasting a cut in 2026. The consensus among CBA, ANZ and NAB is that the rate stays at 4.35% through December, with the first easing not expected until mid-2027 at the earliest.
| Bank | August 2026 | Rest of 2026 | First cut expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBA | Hold 4.35% | Hold through year-end | Mid-2027 |
| ANZ | Hold 4.35% | Hold through year-end | September 2027 |
| NAB | Hold 4.35% | Hold through year-end | Mid-2027 |
| Westpac | Hold 4.35% | Possible further hike | Late 2027 – 2028 |
The practical implication for borrowers waiting for rate relief before acting: a borrower paying 0.5% above the best available market rate on a $700,000 loan is forfeiting approximately $3,500 per year in unnecessary interest. That saving is available now, regardless of when the RBA next moves. Use the IFG borrowing power calculator to see your current position, and read our refinancing guide for 2026 for a framework to assess whether switching makes sense.
November is the date every Melbourne borrower needs to mark
Finder’s August 2026 survey of Australian economists found 44% still expect at least one further rise before year-end. Of those, 69% nominate November 3–4 as the meeting at which it will occur. That is the single most important risk date on Melbourne borrowers’ calendars right now.
The 11-week gap between today and that decision is one of the cleanest planning windows of the year. For buyers: time to get formal pre-approval locked in before spring competition peaks — and before any borrowing capacity change from a November hike. For refinancers: time to compare and switch before a potential rate change disrupts the process mid-stream. For investors: time to review the portfolio and restructure while the rate environment is stable.
How the August hold affects Melbourne’s spring property market
Melbourne’s spring season historically lifts from late August and peaks through September–October. Two consecutive holds are typically enough to restore buyer confidence following a tightening cycle — and the REIV data confirms the market is already moving in that direction. A 73% clearance rate in the week of 8 August, on rising volumes, signals a spring season with genuine competition.
For buyers planning to purchase this spring, understanding the difference between pre-approval and unconditional approval before you set foot at an auction is critical. Our guide on pre-approval vs unconditional approval explains every stage, the timing traps, and the auction-day risk most Melbourne buyers don’t see coming. For full preparation detail — scheme eligibility, deposit scenarios and pre-approval timelines — read our Melbourne spring property market 2026 guide.
Your spring action plan — by borrower type
First home buyers
The hold stabilises your environment, but 2026’s hikes have already reduced borrowing capacity by ~7%. Before you start inspecting, confirm your current maximum at the borrowing power calculator then book a formal pre-approval. The First Home Guarantee (5% deposit, no LMI, up to $950,000 in Melbourne) and Victorian stamp duty exemptions up to $600,000 remain unchanged. Brokers and lenders are busier in September than they are today — get your file in order now.
Variable rate owner-occupiers
A hold doesn’t fix a loyalty-taxed rate. Many Melbourne borrowers are paying 0.3–0.6% above what a new customer would receive from the same lender — or above what a competitor offers. Our refinancing team compares a deliberately broad panel of bank, non-bank and specialist lenders at no cost. If there is a material saving, we will find it. If there isn’t, we will tell you directly.
Investors
Two consecutive holds create a review window. Is each property on the best available rate? Is your security structure — particularly cross-collateralisation between properties — limiting future borrowing flexibility under APRA’s DTI cap? Speak with IFG before the spring market forces a reactive decision.
Fixed rate borrowers rolling off in 2026–2027
If your fixed rate expires in the next 6–12 months, act before expiry, not after. Rolling onto a standard variable without choosing your next product typically adds 1.5–2.5% to your effective rate. The fixed vs variable guide covers the current landscape. Your negotiating window is now, not after the lender defaults you onto their standard product.
Spring is weeks away — is your finance ready?
IFG’s directors have 45+ years combined experience in mortgage and business finance — business banking since 2003, formerly at NAB. We work with a deliberately broad panel of bank, non-bank and specialist lenders, and every enquiry is answered the same business day — by a director.
- What is the current RBA cash rate in August 2026?
- The RBA cash rate is 4.35% as of 11 August 2026. The Monetary Policy Board voted to hold the rate unchanged — the second consecutive pause following a hold in June. Three 25-basis-point hikes were delivered in February, March and May 2026, adding 0.75% in total.
- When is the next RBA interest rate decision?
- The next meeting is scheduled for 3–4 November 2026. It is the most closely watched upcoming decision: 44% of surveyed economists expect at least one more rate rise in 2026, and 69% of those nominate November as the meeting at which it occurs.
- Will Australian interest rates fall in 2026?
- No major Australian bank is forecasting a cut in 2026. CBA, ANZ and NAB all expect the rate to hold at 4.35% through December, with the first easing not anticipated until mid-2027 at the earliest. Westpac’s outlook is more cautious, flagging potential for a further hike before any cuts begin.
- What should I do with my home loan after the RBA holds in August?
- Use the hold period as a planning window. If you are buying this spring, secure your pre-approval now — before auction season peaks and before any borrowing capacity change from a November hike. If you are a variable rate borrower, compare your rate: savings from switching are available today regardless of where the RBA moves next. Call IFG on 0401 333 636 for a same-business-day review by a director.
This article is general information only and does not constitute personal financial or investment advice. The RBA cash rate, bank forecasts and economic data cited are current as at 14 August 2026 and are subject to change. Your actual home loan interest rate will differ from the RBA cash rate and depends on your lender, loan type, LVR and negotiated terms. Speak with a qualified mortgage broker before making any lending decisions.