RBA Rate Hike September 2026: What the Big Four Banks Expect and What It Means for Your Mortgage

The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Monday 28 and Tuesday 29 September 2026, and for the first time this cycle, all four major banks are calling the same result: a 0.25 percentage point rise in the cash rate, from 4.35% to 4.60%. Financial markets had priced roughly 80–94% odds of a hike by this week. It would be the fourth increase of 2026 and would take the cash rate to its highest level since 2011.

I have worked in Australian lending since 2003, starting in business banking at NAB, and I have helped clients through several rate cycles since. This article covers what the banks expect, why, what it will cost you, and the steps most borrowers (and plenty of brokers) overlook in the days before a rate rise. If you want a Melbourne mortgage broker to run the numbers on your own loan, we can do that before Tuesday.

Will the RBA Raise Interest Rates on 29 September 2026?

Most likely, yes. All four major banks forecast a 0.25% increase to 4.60%, and markets have priced a hike as highly probable. The trigger was sticky underlying inflation of 3.6% in July, a jump in oil prices, and Governor Michele Bullock telling Parliament that upside inflation risks “appear to be materialising”.

It is worth understanding how quickly this changed. As recently as mid-2026 the major banks were forecasting a hold for the rest of the year followed by gradual cuts. That view unravelled within weeks of the July inflation data. Westpac moved from “hold” to a November hike on 8 September, then to September itself. CBA and ANZ brought their calls forward on 21 September. In more than two decades in this industry, I have rarely seen all four majors move this far this quickly.

What Are the Big Four Banks Forecasting for the Cash Rate?

Sources: CBA Newsroom (21 Sep 2026), Broker Daily (22 Sep 2026), Canstar (21 Sep 2026), Aussie (Sep 2026). Forecasts are the banks’ own and can change at any time.

What each bank is saying, in short:

• CBA (Belinda Allen, Head of Australian Economics) moved its call from November to September, citing Brent crude rising from around US$80 to above US$100 a barrel, stronger-than-expected CPI and GDP, and hawkish RBA commentary. CBA sees 4.60% as the likely peak, but says a move to 4.85% would be on the table if September-quarter trimmed mean inflation comes in at 1% or more.
• Westpac (Chief Economist Luci Ellis) says the Governor’s comments met the condition the Board set in August for further action. It expects a split vote and has kept August 2027 as the start of cuts, but says that would need to change if a follow-up hike becomes the base case.
• NAB has held a September call since late August. It argues the RBA was “wrong-footed” by last year’s inflation resurgence and now has little flexibility on inflation outcomes.
• ANZ (Adam Boyton and Jack Chambers) is the most hawkish, forecasting hikes in September and November. That would take the cash rate to 4.85%, the highest since 2008. ANZ says the RBA treats the oil shock as more of an inflation shock than a growth shock.

Why Has the RBA Turned Hawkish Again in 2026?

The Board already lifted rates three times earlier this year, taking the cash rate to 4.35% in May, before holding in June and August (see our August decision recap). Four pressures have pushed it back towards tightening:

• Underlying inflation is stuck. Headline CPI eased to 3.5% in the year to July, but the trimmed mean (the measure the RBA watches most closely) held at 3.6%, well above the 2–3% target. Housing costs rose 5.0% over the year.
• Oil. The Middle East conflict has pushed crude above US$100. Fuel prices rose 7.5% in July alone.
• A stronger-than-expected economy. June-quarter GDP beat the RBA’s forecasts, and its business liaison found many firms passing higher costs on to customers.
• A change of tone. On 18 September Bullock said she had “retired” the RBA’s long-standing “narrow path” framing and that getting inflation down is the priority.

There is a counter-case. Unemployment rose to 4.5% in July, the highest in the post-COVID period, underemployment has lifted, and CBA describes housing as undergoing “a significant downturn”. August labour force figures are due from the ABS at 11:30am today (24 September), and the monthly CPI for August lands on 30 September, the day after the decision. A very weak jobs number is probably the only thing that could change the call.

How Much Will a 0.25% Rate Rise Add to My Mortgage Repayments?

On a $750,000 loan over 30 years, a 0.25% rise adds about $122 a month to principal-and-interest repayments, assuming your lender passes it on in full. Two rises (the ANZ scenario) add about $245 a month.

IFG calculations, indicative only. They assume a 6.09% starting variable rate (around the lowest major-bank variable rate reported by Canstar on 22 September) and full pass-through. Your figures will depend on your rate, balance and remaining term.

Canstar’s tally puts the cumulative impact in context. A borrower who had $600,000 owing and 25 years remaining in February 2026 would be paying about $364 a month more after four hikes this year, rising to around $456 a month if November also delivers. Run your own numbers with our home loan repayment calculator.

Could Interest Rates Rise Again in November 2026?

Yes, it is a real possibility. ANZ already forecasts a November hike, and CBA, Westpac and NAB all flag it as a risk. The deciding data point will be the September-quarter CPI, released in late October, ahead of the RBA’s early-November meeting.

The number to watch is quarterly trimmed mean inflation. CBA has said a print of 1% or more for the quarter could put a move to 4.85% on the table. Watch the RBA’s statement on Tuesday as well. If the Board keeps language saying it will “do what is necessary” or that risks remain “to the upside”, markets will read it as an open door. Plan your budget for 4.85% and treat anything lower as a bonus. That is how I have always stress-tested client files, and it has rarely steered anyone wrong.

Should I Fix My Home Loan Before the RBA Meeting?

Probably not purely to “beat” Tuesday’s decision. The majors have already repriced their fixed rates for the expected hike, so the cheapest fixed deals are now often with smaller lenders. Fixing can still make sense for certainty, especially a split loan, but compare it with the full picture first.

Lenders move fixed rates on where they expect rates to go, not where they are today. By 22 September, Canstar had recorded 16 lenders lifting at least one fixed rate this month. CBA raised its 2-year fixed by 0.48 percentage points, almost two standard rate hikes in one move.

Source: Canstar, 22 September 2026. Advertised rates only; LVR and package requirements apply. These are not offers of credit, and comparison rates will differ.

Canstar also found that seven lenders still offered at least one owner-occupier fixed rate starting with a “5”, and modelled that a 1-year fix could come out ahead of the lowest variable rate if one or more hikes are delivered. The trade-offs matter, though: break costs if you sell or refinance, limits on extra repayments, and usually no full offset account. Many of our clients settle on a split loan, fixing part for certainty and keeping part variable with an offset. Our fixed vs variable guide goes deeper. If you do fix, ask about a rate lock. Without one, you get whatever rate applies at settlement, not the rate on the day you applied.

Six Things Most Borrowers Miss Before an RBA Rate Rise

This is where I see the most money left on the table, and where most rate-hike commentary stops short.

1. Your borrowing power shrinks, not just your budget. Lenders assess you at your rate plus APRA’s 3 percentage point serviceability buffer. At today’s rates, each 0.25% rise cuts maximum borrowing capacity by roughly 2–2.5%. Someone approved for $750,000 could lose around $16,000 of capacity from one hike, and about $32,000 from two. If you hold a pre-approval, it may be reassessed at the higher rate before unconditional approval. Check it with your broker now. Our borrowing power calculator gives a quick guide.
2. Pass-through timing varies by lender. Lenders set their own effective dates for variable rate changes, and some existing-customer rates rise by more than new-customer rates. Watch for your lender’s notice. Don’t assume it will match the RBA exactly.
3. Fixed-rate expiry is the real shock. If your fixed term ends in the next 6–12 months, you may roll onto a revert rate that is well above what new customers pay. Start the refinance conversation 8–10 weeks before expiry, not after.
4. “Mortgage prisoners” have more options than they think. If a hike means you can’t pass a full serviceability test elsewhere, some lenders have streamlined policies for like-for-like refinances. See our guide to mortgage prisoners and the loyalty tax.
5. Every dollar in offset works at your mortgage rate. As rates rise, money parked in an offset becomes more valuable, and it stays accessible, unlike some redraw facilities. Compare offset vs redraw.
6. Business borrowers get hit twice. Variable business loans, overdrafts and lines of credit usually reprice too, often faster than home loans. If you run an SME, review your facilities alongside your mortgage. Our business finance team can review both together.

What Does a Rate Hike Mean for Melbourne Property Buyers?

Higher rates cool buyer demand, and Melbourne is already showing it. Preliminary clearance rates slipped to 59.3% on the weekend of 19–20 September (see our weekend auction results). For buyers with finance in place, a softer spring can mean more room to negotiate, longer settlements and fewer competing bidders. The key is certainty. Know your post-hike borrowing limit before you bid, keep a buffer for November, and don’t stretch to the top of a pre-approval that was calculated at yesterday’s rates. First home buyers can still use the 5% deposit First Home Guarantee, although higher repayments make the budget work harder.

What If I’m Struggling With My Repayments?

Talk to your lender early, before you miss a payment. Under the National Credit Code you can apply for a hardship variation, such as a temporary reduction in repayments, an interest-only period or a term extension, and your lender must consider it. If you are not satisfied with the outcome, the Australian Financial Complaints Authority (AFCA) offers free dispute resolution. Refinancing or consolidating higher-interest debt may also help in some cases, but it is not right for everyone. It needs to be assessed against your full situation.

Frequently Asked Questions: RBA September 2026 Decision

When is the next RBA meeting and decision?

The RBA Monetary Policy Board meets on 28–29 September 2026. The cash rate decision is announced at 2:30pm AEST on Tuesday 29 September, followed by the Governor’s press conference. The following meeting is in early November, after the September-quarter CPI is released in late October.

What do the big four banks predict for the RBA cash rate?

CBA, Westpac and NAB forecast a 0.25% hike to 4.60% on 29 September 2026. ANZ forecasts that hike plus a second 0.25% rise in November, taking the cash rate to 4.85%. CBA, Westpac and NAB expect cuts to begin from August 2027; ANZ expects them from November 2027.

How much will the September rate hike add to my repayments?

A 0.25% rise adds roughly $81 a month on a $500,000 loan, $122 on a $750,000 loan and $162 on a $1 million loan (30-year principal and interest, full pass-through). Canstar estimates a borrower with $600,000 owing in February 2026 will pay about $364 more a month after four hikes this year.

Will interest rates go up again after September 2026?

Possibly. ANZ forecasts another hike in November, and the other majors call it a risk. The key signal will be September-quarter trimmed mean inflation, due in late October; CBA says a result of 1% or more could put a move to 4.85% on the table. Budgeting for 4.85% is a sensible stress test.

This article is general information only and does not constitute financial, credit, tax or legal advice. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs; consider whether it is appropriate for you and seek personalised advice before acting. Cash rate forecasts are those of the named banks as published between 9 and 22 September 2026 and may change at any time. The RBA’s decision will be announced on 29 September 2026. Interest rates quoted are advertised rates sourced from Canstar as at 22 September 2026; they are not offers of credit, may not be available to you, are subject to lender criteria, fees and LVR requirements, and comparison rates will differ. Repayment and borrowing capacity figures are IFG estimates for illustration only. Integrated Finance Group’s brokers are Credit Representatives of BLSSA Pty Ltd, Australian Credit Licence 391237. All credit applications are subject to lender assessment and approval. Our Credit Guide is available on request. Tax questions should be directed to your accountant.